If you ask some investors in the Nigerian stock market today, they will tell you that they got their inspiration from Warren Buffett, who is an American investor.
Buffett is not just an investor but his net worth was put around $62 billion and was ranked as the richest person in the World last February by Forbes.
Given the fact that he made his fortunes by investing in stocks, investors looking up to him as their role model may not be wrong. Buffet adopted an investment strategy for eight years that prevented him from realising higher returns.
It may sound unbelievable but the strategy is technical analysis, which is one of the tools financial experts always recommend for investors to use in their investment decisions. Technical analysis is the practice of predicting where stocks will trade based on charts of historical pricing and volume information. The strategy maintains that all information is reflected already in the stock price, so others such as fundamental analysis are a waste of time.
This is why Buffet tried to master that strategy for good eight years. But an American investment expert and writer, Richard Gibbons, disclosed in one of his articles that the popular investor discovered that the strategy was not working for him and decided to change it.
According to Gibbons, Buffett discovered technical analysis did not work.
“I realised that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer,” Buffet was quoted as saying.
After eight years of trying he concluded that it was the wrong way to invest. Then he focused on the teachings of Ben Graham, which stressed business fundamentals, finding a strategy that both made sense and, more importantly, worked. Graham is known as the father of value investing. Value investors quietly seek out bargains among under priced companies, buy into them, and then patiently wait for their fair value to be realised.
When Buffet was recently asked how to avoid the crowd mid-set, he said simply followed Graham’s important lessons.
Buy stocks with a margin of safety
The market is there to serve you, not instruct you. The first lesson usually makes the headlines. It means that you should buy stocks for less than they’re worth. The Nigerian stock market, with its current state, offers the opportunity to buy some of the stocks at their under priced value.
Buying a Business
Buffett explained that thinking about a stock as part of a business is the opposite of what technical analysis is all about. Technical analysis focuses on trading securities.
“It doesn’t matter whether the security is a share of General Electric, with its jet engines, turbines, national television network, nuclear imaging, and financial arm; or whether that security is a derivative promising the delivery of three tons of Italian meatballs. It’s all the same because technical analysis doesn’t care about the business or the fundamentals,” he said.
He added that stocks are far more than just pieces of paper or lines on graphs, and to understand them, you need to understand the business.
“If you are looking at Apple, ignore whether the stock has been up three days in a row, and focus on how many iPods, iPhones, iTunes songs, and iBackhoes the company will sell today and in the future.”
Taking Advantage
so, instead of listening to the market, Buffett seeks to take advantage of it. Sometimes, the market will offer to buy a stock for far more than it’s actually worth.
“Other times, it’ll offer you the chance to buy shares of a great company for far less than its fair value. An investor who understands the true value of a business will be able to profit when the market offers great companies on sale,” he said.
You can learn from Buffett’s error by not focusing on charts alone. Instead, understand businesses and seek excellent stocks the market offers at low prices. It is very common these days to understand the market. Some stocks that seem cheap will turn out to be very expensive. Others that have suffered price losses due to negative perception may post amazing returns.
The Bottom-line
Most investors lose in the stock market because of their greed and the fear of incurring loss. Some of them keep waiting for the highest price and refuse to sell if even they have witnessed significant appreciation in their investments.
In a similar vein, investors are afraid to book losses that they have already suffered and in process are forced to sell at still higher losses. This often happens when after enduring a bear run, you decide to sell a stock only for the stock to begin to appreciate immediately after. Using the two basic analyses to decide your investment pattern would be of great help.
However, before you choose any strategy, be it technical or fundamental analysis, try and understand them well.
Technical analysis is the practice of predicting where stocks will trade based on charts of historical pricing and volume information, while fundamental analysis of a business involves analysing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets.
Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a security in the short run but that the “correct” price will eventually be reached. Profits can be made by trading the mispriced security and then waiting for the market to recognise its “mistake” and re-price the security.
On the other hand, technical analysis maintains that all information is reflected already in the stock price, so fundamental analysis is a waste of time. However, investors can use both differently but somewhat complementary methods for stock picking. Many fundamental investors use technicals for deciding entry and exit points just as many technical investors use fundamentals to limit their select of ’good’ companies.
*Culled from Thisday.